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Iraq War Funding - Timeline - GI Bill and Unemployment Extension. How our local Reps Voted.

wegerje — Sat, 17 May 2008 08:04:52 GMT

So this is your basic type Iraq War addiction fix. Now the Republicans are running scared. They really are at a loss here. They have to keep it going but they know it's not going to be helping them in the fall. But too they sure as hell can't be voting with the progressives. It's bad enough having to stick their head in the sand without having to eat it as well.

So they voted "Present". That caused the measure to be defeated. The progressive "Blues" went from 140 last year to 147 this year. Of note is Boswell of Iowa. He abandoned his Blue Dog buddies probably because he's got a race on his hands from real progressive (or at least a lot more) Ed Fallon.

After the jump two more interesting votes from Thursday.

BILL TITLE: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and
QUESTION: On Agreeing to the Senate Amendment With Amendment No
H R 2642 YEA-AND-NAY 15-May-2008 3:30 PM

Iraq War Funding
Democrats

Yes Vote

No Vote

Not Voting

(Present)

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Missouri

Wisconsin

Rush

Visclosky

Braley

Stupak

Clay

(Ryan)

Jackson

Donnelly

Loebsack

(Hoekstra)

(Akin)

Baldwin

Lipinski

(Souder)

Boswell

(Ehlers)

Carnahan

Kind

Gutierrez

(Buyer)

(Latham)

(Camp)

Skelton

Moore

Emanuel

(Burton)

(King)

Kildee

Cleaver

Sensenbrenner

(Roskam)

(Pence)

Upton

Graves

Petri

Davis

Carson

Walberg

(Blunt)

Obey

Bean

Ellsworth

(Rogers)

Emerson

Kagen

Schakowsky

Hill

(Knollenberg)

Hulshof

(Kirk)

Miller

(Weller)

(McCotter)

Costello

Levin

(Biggert)

Kilpatrick

Foster

Conyers

Johnson

Dingell

(Manzullo)

Hare

LaHood

(Shimkus)

Next up is a war funding bill but with a time-line to get out. It passed locally on a straight party line vote.

H R 2642 YEA-AND-NAY 15-May-2008 3:37 PM
QUESTION: On Agreeing to the Senate Amendment With Amendment No
BILL TITLE: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and

Iraq War Funding But with a Timeline for Withdrawal
Democrats

Yes Vote

No Vote

Not Voting

(Present)

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Missouri

Wisconsin

Rush

Visclosky

Braley

Stupak

Clay

Ryan

Jackson

Donnelly

Loebsack

Hoekstra

Akin

Baldwin

Lipinski

Souder

Boswell

Ehlers

Carnahan

Kind

Gutierrez

Buyer

Latham

Camp

Skelton

Moore

Emanuel

Burton

King

Kildee

Cleaver

Sensenbrenner

Roskam

Pence

Upton

Graves

Petri

Davis

Carson

Walberg

Blunt

Obey

Bean

Ellsworth

Rogers

Emerson

Kagen

Schakowsky

Hill

Knollenberg

Hulshof

Kirk

Miller

Weller

McCotter

Costello

Levin

Biggert

Kilpatrick

Foster

Conyers

Johnson

Dingell

Manzullo

Hare

LaHood

Shimkus

Finally a third vote was on an extension of the unemployment benefits and funding the new GI Bill. It passed too but on this vote we get some scatter shot. Blue Dogs being Blue Dogs but a bunch of Republicans doing the right thing. On this one I think the leadership of both sides said hey you want a freebee give aways for your district. So you get Bean getting to look all fiscal tightwad and Kirk getting to look all socially goody goody.

H R 2642 YEA-AND-NAY 15-May-2008 3:45 PM
QUESTION: On Agreeing to the Senate Amendment With Amendment No
BILL TITLE: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and

Extend Unemployment and Fund GI Bill
Democrats

Yes Vote

No Vote

Not Voting

(Present)

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Missouri

Wisconsin

Rush

Visclosky

Braley

Stupak

Clay

Ryan

Jackson

Donnelly

Loebsack

Hoekstra

Akin

Baldwin

Lipinski

Souder

Boswell

Ehlers

Carnahan

Kind

Gutierrez

Buyer

Latham

Camp

Skelton

Moore

Emanuel

Burton

King

Kildee

Cleaver

Sensenbrenner

Roskam

Pence

Upton

Graves

Petri

Davis

Carson

Walberg

Blunt

Obey

Bean

Ellsworth

Rogers

Emerson

Kagen

Schakowsky

Hill

Knollenberg

Hulshof

Kirk

Miller

Weller

McCotter

Costello

Levin

Biggert

Kilpatrick

Foster

Conyers

Johnson

Dingell

Manzullo

Hare

LaHood

Shimkus

Carl Davidson on Obama: a high-road industrial policy capitalist and 'soft power' multipolar global

Bill_Baar — Fri, 16 May 2008 00:59:31 GMT

From a comment from Carl Davidson on Obama that deserves a post of it's own.

I thought Barack just deep down a Chicago Pol who learned his craft and the feet of Emil Jones, but you may be right here carl.. I just need to google some of these words to be sure.

I'm a pragmatist not only in philosophy, but also politics. Of those remaining, Obama is the best option, so I signed on to 'Progressives for Obama' and our web project
http://progressivesforobama.bl...
We don't claim Obama is a leftist or even a consistent progressive. He's really a high-road industrial policy capitalist and 'soft power' multipolar globalist, while Hillary is a garden variety corporate liberal capitalist and globalist and McCain is an unreconstructed neoliberal capitalist and US hegemonist.
Truth be told, Obama is the best candidate for productive capital (as opposed to speculative) and does the least harm to the working class. That how he can unite the left, progressives and moderates vs the right in a new majority coalition.

I'll get back to you Carl but how about an ongoing you vs me blog debate through the election?

xp: carl-davidson-on-obama-high-road at Bill Baar's West Side

Larry McKeon, R.I.P.

BobB — Thu, 15 May 2008 15:27:48 GMT

Larry McKeon, the 1st openly gay member of Illinois legislature, died Tuesday, May 13th, in Springfield.

From his Tribune Obit:

Mr. McKeon was elected to the House in 1996 by voters in what was then the North Side's 34th District, which encompassed parts of neighborhoods including Ravenswood, Uptown, Andersonville and West Rogers Park. At the time, the seat was open and the city's gay community sought one of its own in the legislature.
"It was not only symbolism but it was a catalyst to move legislation from the inside," said Ald. Tom Tunney (44th), who in 2003 became Chicago's first openly gay alderman. "We need to have somebody at the table."
Mr. McKeon, an ex-police officer with strong ties to Daley, "was someone who could win and whose profile broke stereotypes," said Rick Garcia, political director of Equality Illinois

More @ the Trib:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

PSB Named Illinois State Blog to Democratic Convention!

bored now — Wed, 14 May 2008 20:26:06 GMT

the dnc, though demconwatch, announced that prairie state blue will be the official state blog from illinois to this summer's democratic national convention in denver.

in an exciting extension of howard dean's 50-state project, this will allow PSB bloggers to sit with the illinois delegation on the convention floor. something tells me these will be pretty good seats.

we've been thinking about how we should cover this democratic convention for a number of months now. look for a number of regular updates about the democratic convention, illinois' delegation to the convention, the development of the democratic platform and perhaps even some coverage of the frivolity involved in any political convention over the next few months.

congratulations to everyone involved. you made it happen!
squarestate.net has an interview with howard dean about blogger access to the convention that is interesting...

Open Thread - Durbin Says No to VP Position

wegerje — Tue, 13 May 2008 11:54:37 GMT

I'm not even sure if it is legal for the VP and the President to be from the same state. Anyway the Hill was asking here.

Progress Illinois - Obama Could Take IN - Poblano's Five-Thirty-Eight

wegerje — Tue, 13 May 2008 03:08:02 GMT

Poblano is all the rage right now in the progressive blogosphere. By combining and rating polls and pollsters and then applying census data and fancy math Poblano is running rings around the primary prediction game.

Of note here in Illinois is our own Progress Illinois. Both outfits run a tight professional shop. So when Progress Illinois goes to Poblano to pose some questions it behooves us all to pay attention. Here's what Progress Illinois did:

Recently, Progress Illinois and the SEIU Illinois Council (which sponsors us) asked Poblano to examine how incremental increases in turnout among certain demographic groups would affect the outcome of an Obama-McCain contest. What he found underscores the importance of voter mobilization this year.

After the jump is the portion of Poblano's effort that describes what coud happen in Illinois and Indiana. The upshot is that Indiana could be won by Obama. It will be a matter of creating and turning out new black, Hispanic and young voters. Some very interesting stuff.

			Turnout Increase	20.0%		30.0%		40.0%
			Obama Share	94.0%		60.0%		70.0%

	2004 Results			A-A Turnout ('04)		Latino Turnout ('04)		Youth Turnout ('04)		2008 Baseline			+ Turnout Bonus
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Percent	Voters	Percent	Voters	Percent	Voters	McCain	Obama	Margin	McCain	Obama	Margin
USA	62,039,073	59,027,478	121,066,551	11.1%	13,423,290	10.9%	13,145,039	9.3%	11,208,987	60,757,005	60,309,546	-0.4%	63,840,568	68,337,748	3.4%
IL	2,346,608	2,891,989	5,238,597	15.1%	791,028	9.7%	508,144	7.4%	387,656	2,066,627	3,171,970	21.1%	2,183,615	3,520,693	23.4%
IN	1,479,438	969,011	2,448,449	7.6%	186,082	3.0%	73,453	8.9%	217,912	1,253,606	1,194,843	-2.4%	1,290,803	1,304,064	0.5%

Rahm Calls Out Kennedy

wegerje — Mon, 12 May 2008 02:52:01 GMT

It really shouldn't be that hard a thing to do. That is to step back and realize that there isn't a huge difference between Hillary and Barack. Certainly when it comes to policy and political capability. Sure maybe there are externalities that might make one or the other more electable, but really they are both solid Democrats even if maybe a bit too wedded to power interests. But hey, lets face it there is no way a "real" progressive is going to get elected at this time.

But the thing now is to get the Republicans out of power. And that means being partisanly loyal. Even if Barack thinks he can steer a bi-partisan course, we know that is not a very sophisticated approach given the current crop of in-power Republicans.

So when Edward Kennedy says that Clinton isn't enough of a leader to be vice-president, then Kennedy is carrying Republican water. That is a huge no-no in this current political climate.

Hello Ted. Knock knock knock (on his head). Are you there? It's not helpful to be dissing other Democrats, especially ones with whom we are trying to make nice, so they continue to feel good about all Democrats, even their ostensible opponents in the primary.

Anyway, it is nice to once again give kudos to the local Democrat we love to disparage, Rahm Emanuel. Bless his heart, he called Kennedy out:

I have a lot of respect for Ted Kennedy, but I don't know how the hell he comes off saying that. The gratuitous attack on her is uncalled for and wrong. He is a better senator than that comment reveals.

Kirk, Biggert, Other Republicans say No Apple Pie for Mom

wegerje — Sun, 11 May 2008 02:15:18 GMT

Kirk and Biggert vote against mothers! Finally Roskam and Shimkus do the right thing. Sure it was a procedural vote where they first voted for it then against it but still ...

H RES 1113 RECORDED VOTE 7-May-2008 2:27 PM
QUESTION: Table Motion to Reconsider
BILL TITLE: Celebrating the role of mothers in the United States

Republicans say No Apple Pie for Mom
Democrats

Yes Vote

No Vote

Not Voting

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Michigan

Missouri

Wisconsin

Rush

Visclosky

Braley

Stupak

Clay

Ryan

Jackson

Donnelly

Loebsack

Hoekstra

Akin

Baldwin

Lipinski

Souder

Boswell

Ehlers

Carnahan

Kind

Gutierrez

Buyer

Latham

Camp

Skelton

Moore

Emanuel

Burton

King

Kildee

Cleaver

Sensenbrenner

Roskam

Pence

Upton

Graves

Petri

Davis

Carson

Walberg

Blunt

Obey

Bean

Ellsworth

Rogers

Emerson

Kagen

Schakowsky

Hill

Knollenberg

Hulshof

Kirk

Miller

Weller

McCotter

Costello

Levin

Biggert

Kilpatrick

Foster

Conyers

Johnson

Dingell

Manzullo

Hare

LaHood

Shimkus

Rahm: "Hillary can't win ..."

wegerje — Sat, 10 May 2008 21:34:57 GMT

Via Huffington Post:

"At this point, Barack is the presumptive nominee," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel during the New Yorker's magazine conference. "Hillary can't win but something could happen that could effect that Barack could lose the nomination."

Netroots Obama VP polling

wegerje — Sat, 10 May 2008 21:07:52 GMT

Bowers over at OpenLeft has started an Obama Vice President polling for the netroots. I have challenged Bowers to a little bet. Namely that the poll I am posting here will closely mirror his. What makes the challenge interesting is that we will do it with one hundreth the number of voters. So folks have at both polls. Ours on the front page and his is here.

Here's where I make the bet. What makes this interesting is that he is using fancy-smancy Instant Runoff Polling while we use simple approval voting polling. He's running Soapblox like we are so he could do it too. In the past we have closely mirrored his thousands of voters results with tens of voters here. Except perhaps Obama did better here in Illinois. I tell you these approval voting polls are very powerful.

Federal Funds for Transit

crash-dev — Tue, 06 May 2008 05:59:32 GMT

Last fall, I wrote in a rather bothered tone that Chicago failed to even apply for federal congestion relief funds. Well, it looks like New York's plan fell through. And I don't really know how it happened but we just ended up with the potential of $153 million in federal money.

So what is the plan?
The money appears to be all headed for improvements in buses and street side congestion:
1) Bus only lanes, I think there are going to be 4 trial routes. Daley's stated goal is 100 miles of routes.
2) Buses will be able to get priority on traffic lights once they fall behind schedule. This sounds technically difficult, but other cities have done it effectively I hear.
3) Fewer stops for buses, making it every 1/4 mile instead of every 1/8 of a mile.
4) Capital for some long hybrid buses.
5) The ability to pre-pay at the bus stop.

So just looking at the bus proposals. These all seem worth a try to me. Public transportation works when people want to ride it. I have plenty of friends who just don't take the buses. They always give plenty of excuses, but I think that seeing hybrid-buses fly down some routes will really help with the cool factor.

The big question I have is what are the routes of the bus only lanes. The article cites Lake Shore Drive, Ashland, and Ogden as options. LSD would really help all the edgewater/uptown to downtown routes, but that is a pretty well traveled road at rush hour so it will be interesting to see how drivers deal with it. My friends who drive swear that Ashland is the best north-south street in the north side. So a bus only lane will not really help buses that much, and it could take away a key artery from drivers. With roads being shared by bikers and with parking, I really don't see the space. I wonder how big a shock it would be on the streets. Perhaps that is what we need.

Congestion Pricing:
1) Meter rates downtown change by time of day.
2) Additional fees for truck loading sites which change by time of day.

Business leaders get really angry about congestion pricing schemes. They aren't really into the stick approach, but Chicagoans are already getting beaten in these commutes. By focusing on parking and fees, it is different than other systems, such as London, that actually charge tolls for coming into the central business district.

US Mass transit is at a 50 year high. Now is the time to keep that trend going. This is part of the war effort. The Pentagon is the largest buyer in the world. $8.5 Billion in 2005. The high energy prices hurt our economy in so many ways, this is just another one, by adding to our deficit.

There was a time when we used to fight wars as a country.

Regardless, I really hope Chicago makes something happen on this front.

A Report from Indiana

Jeff Smith — Tue, 06 May 2008 22:14:46 GMT

First off, let me advise anyone ever going to NW Indiana that if Mapquest tells you to get off at Exit 74B, ignore it unless you want to head toward Iowa/Wisconsin. If you have a 4 am departure and coffee hasn't kicked in you could, hypothetically speaking, get confused.

Fortunately the bonus of working Lake County is that you might think you will be 1/2 hour late, but due to the screwy split time zones of Indiana, a town like Dyer is on Chicago time, so even with a detour -- not saying I took one but just hypothetically -- you can still make your 5:45 phone-in.

My destination and station for today, Faith Reformed Church, is a small megachurch surrounded by a subdivision of spanking new homes on the western edge of Indiana, with Cook County visible just beyond a golf course sand trap. Obviously in dire need (heh heh) of a legal observer. By "small" I mean that the parking lot looks to hold about 700 cars, and the first Obama passer stationed here, who attends, says they have 4 services each Sunday morning, all 4 are packed to the gills, and so they are going to tear down the church (which is all of about 3 years old) and build a bigger one (a McCathedral?). The secret? He says their pastors are all "educated" and "we have lots of music."
This church has a fountain, brook, or other water feature every hundred feet. I took a guess and opened up my laptop, and was correct: they have free Wi-Fi, allowing me to e-mail in reports and this blog.

One of the other passers is not involved in the presidential race, here for a friend of hers who is running for coroner. Her candidate is currently the county clerk but due to term limits, he can't run again, so is running for coroner (which he has held before). I.e. every 8 years numerous politicians here swap jobs, and there are elections for posts more obscure than some in Cook County, including an apparently hot race for county surveyor. I didn't even ask why this last is elected -- what opinions can the public possibly have on the office?

I ask about the subdivision visible across the vast expanse of parking lot and am told houses there average a jaw-dropping 5000-6000 s.f. and, even after large price increases, run around $500K-$600K. Clearly both the cost of living and the price of construction labor are less than in northern Cook County.

The golf course apparently straddles the Indiana-Illinois line, so if you play, you can occasionally say you drove a ball into the next state. So it's got that going for it.

Altho they have 5 precincts at this polling place, I experience little need for a lawyer here. Or else my presence exudes calm. Perhaps they knew I was a pollwatcher at the "magic pen" 49th Ward precinct in the Illinois primary and they don't want any publicity. Anyway, here things are smooth as butter. Despite new machines, they were all up and running at 6:00. I schmoozed all the judges and inspectors (the equivalent of the chief judge), and let them know I would pop in at 9:30 and 1:45 to get interim turnout totals. No problem, they say.

There has been a steady stream of voters all day long despite over 20% of Indiana apparently voting early or absentee. Here in these 5 precincts the voters arriving in person are about 98% Caucasian, and appear solidly middle-class. Some show up in obvious work duds: an auto assembly line worker in his overalls (enthusiastically for Obama); an intern in ER scrubs. Early in the day every woman voter seems to be in heels (as is the coroner passer, something you rarely see outside a Chicago polling place in February). By mid-morning, most arrivals were in jeans -- the stay-at-home moms, showing up with little kids in tow.

It has been a clear blue sky, sunny and warm, birds chirping, with the artificial church brook bubbling merrily, all day long. It is unsettling for an experienced Cook County election veteran. I didn't know it was legal to have elections without sleet, or without having to pound precinct signs into mounds of frozen slush.

Only a few voters have problems (at least that they let us know about). One elderly lady didn't know where her precinct was. One poor fellow's registration didn't transfer when he moved; he was going to have to drive up to Highland, IN to vote, and I send in an incident report. A Democratic volunteer, a young man, shows up with no idea what to do or where he should be, his girlfriend's dad "hooked him up" with an assignment today, but he had no idea where he was supposed to be. I try to determine if he is supposed to be a judge, a passer, or what, but he doesn't seem to understand the distinction. I direct him to personnel inside and he seems to get oriented.

I chatted with a young Republican passer. His candidate, an incumbent state rep, is being challenged from the far right, attacked for not being pro-life enough, or sufficiently anti-tax. The passer is not hostile to Obama. He is curious what we Obama people think of McCain. He is a poli sci major at a branch of IU and loves this. However he has no lit to hand out, doesn't get a lot of voter contact, and spends much of the day chatting with another GOP passer, while acquiring a scary sunburn.

I did help the cause by helping a woman apparently registered as a Republican know that she can in fact vote Democratic. Yes, she could be challenged as not being an authentic party member. Indiana allows such a challenge. But all she has to do then is sign an affidavit saying "am so" and then she can vote. A law that ends up little different than "open primary" except that the act of swearing you are in another party might be a disincentive to some. I suppose I helped our candidate get 1 more vote there.

But later a true Republican asked the same question and - since the Obama campaign says to help all voters -- I gave the same answer. He then revealed that he intended to vote for Hillary even tho he was going to vote for McCain in the general. Whether he thought Hillary would be easier to beat, or just wanted to keep the sniping going, hurting the eventual nominee, he didn't say, but it seemed he was going Democrat for mischief. We have heard during the day that this is happening throughout Indiana. So when the exit polls say older white folks are going for Hill, take some of that with a grain of salt.

At 9:30 I went to get the total turnout thus far, but as I was talking to the first precinct, some Inspector (their equivalent of the chief judge) from another precinct came over and told me I could not be in the room without credentials. I said I was just getting turnout numbers and he repeated himself. I said that had been told by the other Inspectors that it was OK, and he repeated himself, positioning himself between me and the room. He was probably legally correct. So I politely thanked him and departed. But really, in a place this calm, with no chance of such information interfering with the election process, it would be a courtesy; we are all participants in the same process. As an alternative, I ask him if he can find out and tell me what the numbers are? "I'm sorry, Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that." Here he is not legally correct, he is just being unhelpful.

The Obama campaign says they are experiencing this problem in many places. I suggested they get me credentials or send someone out with some. Apparently an Illinois resident cannot get credentials. However the Obama volunteer here is a Hoosier, why does he not have papers? Are they rationed out in Indiana? In our turf we rubberstamp hundreds of them, enough for every person. It seems weird to me that a polling place with 5 precincts does not have a single credentialed person assigned [Note: I am later told that credentials are up to the local precinct committeeman; I am also told that none are supporting Obama].

The Obama campaign has hyper-organization and, like any campaign, some gaps. On the one hand the instructions, the training, the systems in place are the most detailed I've ever seen. The call-in systems, ways of contacting local and legal "boiler rooms," PDA-capability, precinct-specific methods to phone in totals without speaking to a human being -- incredibly thorough at the high-tech end. Yet on some elemental traditional campaign level, I am puzzled. There are 5 precincts here and reportedly they are Democratic majority, but when I showed up, no Obama sign, and no Obama volunteer. There were 5 Hillary signs including the first you see when you drive into the church parking lot and the last you see (out of a line of about 50). The signs say "Hoosiers for Hillary" which some wag could easily Photoshop into "Hosers for Hillary."

The Hillary worker seems to know a lot of people. HE has credentials but wouldn't get numbers for me. Neither would Republican College Boy, even tho I thought we had bonded. Neither would Mr. Inspector. Thus I exhausted all my options. I let the campaign know.

I did duck out for a few minutes to procure some McGreaseball from the local yellow arches, in a strip of franchises and stores a few minutes away. I asked Ms. Coroner Supporter when the bars opened and she said they're closed on Election Day. We passers conjure up a lucrative business plan for making margarita runs over the state line to supply thirsty Indiana poll workers. It is decided that transporting tequila across state lines for civic purposes is probably still contrary to someone's laws.

Another disconnect between the high-tech efficiency and the ground-level lack of ammo: the Obama passers (a second appears after noon) are armed only with a stack of little quarter-sheet canary-color photocopies that have "Obama" in the tiniest of letters, a familiar 1" head shot of the candidate looking godlike off into some distant vision, and in giant block letters the word VOTE. There is nothing message-related on the paper, nothing issue-related. It doesn't even say "Hope" or "Change." "Vote" seems an odd choice of passer piece since the only people it is being handed to are people who are, uh, already showing up to vote. I.e. it is more like a GOTV piece you would tape to a door. Moreover, with only a pic of Obama, in relatively high contrast, it does very little for the candidate unless you think looks alone are enough to sway an undecided voter. Instead, the effect, in photocopy, is to remind people that Barack is black. Had a newsmagazine run the picture they might be accused of intentionally darkening a la O.J.. In these precincts the piece doesn't seem to have a big payoff.

On the other hand, the Hillary people have no lit at all. And one could argue that it is to Barack's credit that he is not tailoring his message and passing a "white" piece here.

Why such parsimony on passer pieces? Are all the campaign millions being saved for Puerto Rico? Or is the feeling of the campaigns that no minds can really be changed at the polling place? Watching the hundreds and hundreds of interactions, I'd say that at some level, maybe 1% or more are still waffling, and a friendly face, or a reinforcing message, has impact.

It's hard to tell how the voting is going. Our main passer has one line for everyone, "Will you consider Senator Obama?" Some give big smiles and thanks or readily offer that they are sympathetic. Others just wave you off, or are stonily silent. Others seem visibly angry, say "No way" or worse. One elderly fellow, after voting, as our passer thanked him, turned and, pointing to the flyer, said, "You know, he isn't going to do anything for the whites."

"He is half-white," our flustered passer reminded the voter.

"Nah. He's a n****r, period," said the good burgher of Dyer.

Okaaaaaayyyy.....

A lady in running shorts and shades came up and just said, "Wow, only one Obama sign." Our passer said she must be for Obama, and she readily confirmed and adds, "And if he loses, I hope he goes independent," much to the consternation of the Clinton worker.

With no info available directly from the precincts, I can only estimate; I get some scattered reports and it appears that by 4:00 every precinct is over 200 voters. At 4:00 the pace really starts to pick up and there is a little crowd of workers at the front door; one Obama passer is related to a county official; a Hillary passer is a township committeeman who knows every third voter. By 5 pm we are getting a voter every 15 seconds or so, the trickle has morphed back into a stream, and I am guessing that we may exceed 1500 voters here.

Word has spread that early voting returns are giving Lake and Marion counties to Obama -- not sure how these could be known.

Just from reactions to the passers I estimate that most ballots here will be Democratic but that Hillary will win by 10 points or more, and I would not be shocked by 60-40.

I finally return to my mission of trying to see who if anyone will get us a tape when we close.

Live, from Lake County Indiana,

Jeff

The Drill by Al Giordano

wegerje — Tue, 06 May 2008 17:58:02 GMT

By Al Giordano

Today marks the 47th and 48th primaries or caucuses for the Democratic presidential nomination. More than 90 percent of the delegates will have been chosen by tonight. By now, we all ought to know the drill.

The day begins with the Clinton campaign “leaking” something to the Drudge Report to set expectations for the day. That then gets repeated on political blogs and cable news, where Clinton surrogate Terry McAuliffe elaborates. Today’s “expectation”: That the Clinton campaign expects a “15 point” defeat in North Carolina. Clinton’s yapping puppies in the news media repeat the manufactured expectation all day long, in which the bar is supposedly now that if Clinton comes within 15 points in that state that she has somehow “won” with a 14 point (or 6 point) defeat.

Around 4 p.m. rumors of exit polls begin circulating on the Internet. Around 5:30 p.m. AP and other news organizations leak minor data from the exit polls that explains almost nothing of value. Sometime after 6 p.m. Drudge posts raw numbers from exit polls that - if past is prologue - show Obama doing an average of seven percentage points better than he actually does.

Obama supporters then get prematurely jubilant and after polls close (tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Indiana and 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina) the real results start to come in and reveal Clinton then doing “better than expected” (at least better than the new expectations promoted during the day).

The media talking heads then ask aloud why Obama can’t “close the deal” (in Clinton’s own words) and what is numerically a defeat for Clinton (because the results, even in her recent wins, bring her objectively farther from the nomination in the context of the smaller number of delegates then available) gets spun as a Clinton victory.

Clinton takes to the stage, claims “unexpected” victory, gives out her web site address and pleads for elder women on fixed incomes to send more money to the $109 millionaire. The following day they claim that $10 million rolled in, only to be disproved more than a month later when the actual FEC filing is due. Obama’s FEC filing simultaneously reveals that he raised much, much more, from more small donors, and the Clinton campaign plays the victim card over being outspent.
... (more)

Illinois' Democratic Convention Delegation Complete

bored now — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:19:42 GMT

who said illinois' democrats can't get along? you couldn't tell from today's democratic party of illinois' delegate selection. things went swimmingly, as it were. speaker madigan ran a tight ship and not a single angry word was said.

who'da thunk it?

this was, after all, springfield, the site of ongoing hand-to-hand political combat between the speaker (and chair of the democratic party of illinois) and the governor and the selection of delegates in one of the tightest presidential (primary) races in history. since every delegate counts, it wasn't a stretch to expect hand-to-hand combat here, as well. i was especially interested to see how the standing committee members would be divided, given the increasing importance of the credentials and rules committees. yet not a single angry word...

after a few formalities, springfield resident and the number two democrat in the u.s. senate, dick durbin, welcomed us to the capitol city of illinois. he noted the political divisions represented in the room and, despite his own recognized loyalties, warned of the "strong feelings" that had emerged. but after this race is over, he continued, we will have to all come together. we will come together, he assured us.

then sen. durbin went on to talk about the exciting opportunities in illinois, especially in light of illinois' junior senator being at the top of the statewide ticket. he mentioned that congressional democrats had targeted six seats here in illinois, starting with defending melissa bean and bill foster, to turning republican seats into democratic ones by electing debbie halvorson, dan seals, scott harper and jill morgenthaler in the collar counties. diplomatically, durbin noted that obama's nomination does increase the chances that more democrats will be elected to congress in the state.

then we went off the agenda, as president emil jones spoke to the assembled democrats. observing that he's campaigned for barack "across the country" (i know i ran into jones in iowa and wisconsin), jones then went on to talk about his own success in expanding the number of democrats in the illinois state senate. he specifically mentioned dan kotowski and the need to retain him, and then talked about the opportunities he foresaw in picking up a handful of other seats in the state senate.

yet, still, the speaker did say a word. he was a compleat professional, all business.

madigan noted that everything had been negotiated in advance between the two campaigns, as represented by nate tamarin and kevin o'keefe. the names of the "unpledged" add-on delegates (3), who are appointed at the discretion of the party chair (speaker madigan) had already been announced: mayor richard daley, president todd stroger and majority leader barbara flynn currie. all three have declared their support for illinois' favorite son.

in keeping with tradition, madigan said, mayor daley will the the delegation chair (as he was in the past).

the campaigns had agreed to the 20 pleo (party leaders and elected officials) as follows:

Obama (13):
Tom Balanoff
Joe Berrios
Ed Burke
Michael Carrigan
Dennis Gannon
Alexi Giannoulias
Julie Hamos
Dan Hynes
Lisa Madigan
Harry Osterman
Cynthia Soto
Pat Quinn
Jesse White
Clinton (7):
Victory Bell
George Cardenas
Kevin Conlon
Jack Franks
Sylvia Leonberger
Shirley McCombs
Alice Palmer

the 33 at-large delegates are:

Obama (22):
Anita Alvarez
Martha Tovias
Lauren Verdich
Kappy Scates
Ann Kaliyil
Tina Tchen
Marilyn Stewart
Norma Nunez
Cindy Houlihan
Jayne Mazzotti
Lorrie Jones
Sheila Simon
Soraida Gutierrez
Robin Kelly
Henry Tamarin
Anne Wedner
Michael Bauer
Pam Cullerton
Tammy Duckworth
David Munar
Noele De Leon
Nellie Grove
Clinton (11):
JB Pritzker
Tim Wright
Richard Boykin
Raj Fernando
Kevin O'Keefe
Gay Bruhn
Delmarie Cobb
May Solis
Carmen Mora
Lynn Cutler
Valeria Alexander

where i was expecting some fireworks was in the composition (and breakdown) of the standing committee members (specifically the rules and credentials committees). yet these, too, had been worked out in advance. illinois will send seven members to each of the three standing committees, and while the platform committee breaks down 4-3, the other two break down 5-2:

Rules:
Courtney Nottage (Obama)
Mike Kreloff (Obama)
Jesse Ruiz (Obama)
Latasha Thomas (Obama)
Laura C. Liu (Obama)
Karen Pittenger (Clinton)
Jon Bunge (Clinton)
Platform:
Ed Geppert (Obama)
Henry Bayer (Obama)
Cindi Klickova (Obama)
Renee Ogeltree (Obama)
Mary Smith (Clinton)
Bob Remer (Clinton)
Joan Murphy (Clinton)
Credentials:
Diane Meeks (Obama)
Bob Rivkin (Obama)
Marilyn Katz (Obama)
Jacky Grimshaw (Obama)
Rick Munoz (Obama)
Patsy Bowles (Clinton)
Joe Powers (Clinton)

the elected delegates can be found at this prior diary.

these are pretty much familiar names among democratic activists. with 187 delegates going to the convention from illinois (and more than two dozen alternates), perhaps only a third of them actually attended the meeting. given the fact that everything was worked out in advance, and most of those not attending gave their proxies to their candidate's "floor leader," this is hardly a surprise. but i still remember how late the illinois delegation was in 2004 in getting to boston, given the problems that illinois' elected leaders have in coming to agreement in recent years. everyone says they support barack -- but what good is that support if they don't make it to denver to vote this year? any interesting floor fights -- if they occur -- will happen on the first day, not the third.

what was clear from today's proceedings is that the speaker can sit down with two warring parties (the obama and clinton campaigns) and get them to come to an agreement. in essence, the illinois delegate selection meeting finished in less than an hour because everything had been worked out in advance. the conversations before and after the official meeting were more interesting (by far) then the meeting itself. as you might expect, the favorite question seemed to be, "how do you expect tomorrow to go?" and that's where the tightness of the democratic primary can truly be seen. hardened political professionals are sitting on pins and needles, hoping and praying that their preferred result happens on tuesday. unlike campaign workers, who basically talk amongst themselves all the time, these politicians don't get the opportunities many of us have. those that get to follow this race closely were the center of attention after the meeting concluded. that, in itself, was very interesting.

the obama campaign had a very good day -- that is, if the governor allows the general assembly to come to denver without holding them hostage. in that case, hillary clinton may have gained more than you'd expect. it just really depends. politics in illinois are that fragile. but speaker madigan proved that he remains the maestro that everyone always said he was. a quick meeting as a result of the broad consensus built beforehand -- something we're not used to seeing in illinois politics at the moment...

different pictures can be found at illinoize.

Unconventional Wisdom - Scott Harper's 13th Congressional Strategy

WurfWhile — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:18:00 GMT

(Cross-posted at WurfWhile.com)

It is a political campaign maxim, particularly for non-incumbents, that campaigns must jealously focus on their own race to win - and that any 'distraction' from their campaign comes at great or even unbearable cost. While examples may exist, how often have you heard of an underdog congressional campaign taking their volunteers to canvass for a neighboring congressional candidate? Perhaps more uncommon, how often have you heard of a congressional candidate taking their volunteers out of state to canvass for a presidential candidate in a party primary? It may be unconventional strategy, but 13th Congressional District Democrat Scott Harper has taken campaign volunteers to support neighboring 14th District Congressman Bill Foster in his historic win, and just last weekend was canvassing for Barack Obama in Lafayette, Indiana with his volunteers.

Scott Harper may be in a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) "targeted race," indicating that the party thinks he has a real chance of winning, but under traditional campaign standards one has to ask - is what he doing lunacy?
While not without risk, the unique circumstances Scott Harper's campaign finds themselves in may justify this unique strategy. Consider:

- No congressional Democrat had won a seat in DuPage County for decades, until Bill Foster's congressional win a couple months ago;

- Only small parts of DuPage have had any Democratic state-level representation in recent memory - and with the exception of State Senator Don Harmon, the current elected officials (State Senator Linda Holmes and State Representative Paul Froehlich) have served Democrats under two years; and

- "Serious" DuPage Democratic challenges at the federal and state-level have been very few and far between until two years ago.

Scott Harper has the burden of proving viability in a way that few candidates do, in a district that only became majority Democratic this year. One way to "prove" viability is to show that candidates like Congressman Bill Foster can win - and to support them during an 'off-time' special election in the hopes of support (perhaps from "maxed out" donors among others) during the general election.

A second issue for the Harper Campaign is how to motivate the record number of Democrats voting in DuPage (more than half of the 13th District) to continue voting Democratic down ballot in the general election. By aligning himself with Illinois' U.S. Senator and Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama, Scott Harper hopes to gain many of those Democratic votes from a popular senator who won DuPage with 64% of the vote in 2004.

DuPage represented almost 54% of 13th Congressional District votes in 2006 (109,411 votes) when Democrat Joe Shannon ran against GOP Congresswoman Judy Biggert. If Scott beats Congresswoman Biggert in relatively conservative DuPage, even by a percent or two, it's unlikely that she will win. Shannon got about 40% in both DuPage and suburban Cook County, and his stronghold was in Will County, the second highest vote total (64,247 or almost 32%) where he got over 45% of the vote. Suburban Cook voters cast 29,623 votes in the election (under 15%). Scott Harper is a different candidate than Joe Shannon, but Scott already has more money than Joe did, Harper runs in a DuPage County that has gone Democratic for the first time in memory, and Scott Harper has a bigger, more professional organization than Joe Shannon, who lacked permanent management, field and fundraising staff. Joe Shannon worked very hard, but his effort was part-time. While allowances might be made for Joe Shannon being a more conservative candidate than Scott Harper, Shannon's numbers based on very limited resources are best viewed as a baseline for Harper's full-time effort.

If Scott Harper looks like the best chance Democrats have had in a long time to capture the 13th Congressional seat, that doesn't mean it will be easy. That's what makes Harper's gambit to help his race by helping others so intriguing. Will Scott Harper compensate for limited/new Democratic Party infrastructure by strategically leveraging goodwill gained in two other ongoing campaigns? It's a counterintuitive approach that may make the difference in the 13th District race.

One knowledgeable campaign source summarized Scott Harper's strategy this way,

"Not only does Scott support both Bill Foster and Barack Obama but there's also an advantage for us when and if they both do well. People saw Bill Foster's victory as evidence that the collar counties are changing and that we can win back these seats. If a Democrat can take Former Speaker Hastert's seat in a worse Democratic performing district than ours, then surely Scott can win as well. And as for Senator Obama, Scott absolutely backs him but also understands that having him on the ticket will greatly help us as well.
....
"(T)hough we're mostly focused on Scott, we understand the value of being team players."

The Scott Harper Campaign "team player" strategy may be unconventional, but the timing may be right. We'll know in November.